1.1- Population Growth Rate

Population growth rate is the most significant driving force among human activities that create impact on the environment.

Although the population growth rate in Turkey had a declining trend in time, Turkey’s population has continued to increase constantly. While the population growth rate was 1.34% in 2015, it increased to 1.35% in 2016. In 2016, the population of Turkey became 79,814,871 persons. The population density which is the number of persons per square kilometre increased by 2 persons/km2 compared to 2015 and reached to 104 in 2016. The median age of the population in Turkey increased from 31 in 2015 to 31.4 in 2016 [2].

The world population in 2015 was more than 7 billion according to the population projections calculated by United Nations. Constituting 1.1% of the world population, Turkey was the world’s 18th most populous country.

GRAPH 1- POPULATION AND POPULATION GROWTH RATE CHANGES OVER THE YEARS

 

TABLE 1- POPULATION AND POPULATION GROWTH RATE CHANGES OVER THE YEARS

YEARS

1990

2000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Population

 (1000 persons)

56,473

67,804

73,723

74,724

75,627

76,668

77,696

78,741

79,815

Population Growth Rate (%)

2.17

1.83

1.59

1.35

1.20

1.37

1.33

1.34

1.35

Population density (persons/km2)

73

88

96

97

98

100

101

102

104

Source: TURKSTAT Population Censuses, 1990-2000 and Address Based Population

Registration System (ABPRS), 2009-2016

Note: In the calculation of annual growth rate of population, latest year's administrative division was taken into consideration.

Population projections are very important for future policy-making. Determination of current population trends and predicting future population structure according to these trends provide making healthier policies.

According to the estimates, the population of Turkey will be 86,907,367 in 2023 and 100,331,233 in 2040; will increase slowly to its peak value of 107,664,079 until the year 2069. After 2050, the population is expected to start to decline, and it is expected to be 107,100,904 in 2080.

Life expectancy at birth is expected to continue rising in Turkey together with the ageing of the society. Median age, which is a majör indicator of age pattern of the population, is anticipated to be 32 n 2023, 38.5 in 2040, 42.3 in 2060 and 45 in 2080 [3].

GRAPH 2- POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY YEARS, 2016-2075

TABLE 2- POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY YEARS,  2016-2075

YEARS

2017

2018

2019

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Population (1000 persons)

80.811

81.867

82.886

83.900

88.845

93.329

97.177

100.331

Population Growth Rate (%)

1,24

1,30

1,24

1,22

1,15

0,98

0,81

0,64

Population density (persons/km2)

105

106

108

109

115

121

126

130

 

YEARS

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

Population (1000 persons)

102.844

104.749

106.150

107.096

107.577

107.653

107.453

107.101

Population Growth Rate (%)

0,49

0,37

0,27

0,18

0,09

0,01

-0,04

-0,07

Population density (persons/km2)

134

136

138

139

140

140

140

139

Source: TURKSTAT, Population Projections, 2018-2080